Holbrook Insights

Weekly Market Update - January 18, 2022

The yield curve saw modest flattening last week. The short end of the curve continued its move higher and the long end of the curve held steady. The U.S. 2-year Treasury yield increased another 9.7 basis points (bps), closing at 0.967 percent. The 10-year Treasury yield increased 0.6 bps while the 30-year Treasury yield actually fell 0.2 bps. This news may indicate that the move in yields is approaching a near-term ceiling as appetite from investors keeps bond yields in check at this level. We will see if this trend continues and expands to the short end of the curve in the future.

Weekly Market Update - January 10, 2022

Global equity markets were down across the board last week as Treasury yield curve rates shifted higher. This resulted in high-flying technology and consumer discretionary names—including Microsoft (MSFT), NVIDIA (NVDA), Alphabet (GOOG/GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), Adobe (ADBE), and SalesForce (CRM)—being sold off. Real estate, technology, health care, communication services, and consumer discretionary were among the hardest-hit sectors.
 
Outperforming sectors included energy, financials, industrials, consumer staples, and materials. The market is punishing names that have benefited from the Fed’s actions during the pandemic, including the purchase of mortgage-backed securities, which have reduced mortgage and other interest rates and powered growth in technology and health care. The equity market appears to be playing with higher rates and inflation, which shows uncertainty over whether the Fed or inflation will win out in the short term and in 2022.

Weekly Market Update - January 3, 2022

The U.S. equity markets were mixed last week as trends from 2021 started to reverse following the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The meeting, which stated the Federal Reserve (Fed) would speed up the rate at which it reduces its asset purchases, led investors to question whether rate hikes would shortly follow the taper, which is expected to end in March. As a result, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and International MSCI EAFE Index began to outperform as communication services, energy, and consumer discretionary struggled. Health care, consumer staples, industrials, and financials started to gain some appetite from investors as high-flying tech and communication services have underperformed after a strong 2020 and 2021.

Weekly Market Update - December 20, 2021

The yield curve moved modestly last week, with slight flattening on the back half as future growth projections continued to come down.
 
U.S. equity markets were down last week as the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s decision to double the pace at which it reduced its asset purchases took some steam out of the market and high-flying growth names. Wednesday’s meeting saw Fed Chairman Jerome Powell focus on the price control mandate amid historically elevated inflationary data. This move represents a shift from the Fed—which had been primarily focused on its second mandate of full employment—and led investors to believe that this was a post-pandemic inflection point because the Fed will be less accommodative toward financial markets going forward. The names that sold off last week included cyclical and growth sectors in energy, consumer discretionary, and technology. The sectors that held up well were those less prone to inflation, such as health care, real estate, utilities, and consumer staples.

Weekly Market Update - December 13, 2021

The yield curve steepened last week, supported by positive news surrounding the Omicron variant and slightly faster-than-expected inflation data. On the short end of the curve, the U.S. 2-year Treasury saw yields pick up 6.9 basis points (bps) after opening the week at 0.59 percent. The back half of the curve also steepened 20 bps as yields on the 30-year Treasury moved from 1.68 percent to 1.88 percent. The U.S. 10-year Treasury saw a pickup of 13.1 bps.

Weekly Market Update - December 6, 2021

The yield curve continued to rise on the front end and flatten beyond the 5-year Treasury note last week. Near-term inflationary concerns drove the short end of the curve higher and flattened the back end of the curve due to lower future growth expectations amid concerns from the Omicron variant as well as slower global growth. 

Weekly Market Update - November 29, 2021

Global equity markets fell in the holiday-shortened week after the emergence of Omicron, a new COVID-19 variant discovered in South Africa. The Dow Jones Industrial Average outperformed the more tech-oriented Nasdaq Composite for the first three days of Thanksgiving week by 1.90 percent, but the Nasdaq regained 30 bps after Friday’s sell-off as energy and financial sectors struggled. Oil fell by more than $10 per barrel as demand concerns rippled through the market, while financials were hurt by the drop in short-term yields.

Weekly Market Update - November 22, 2021

Global markets were mixed amid a rise in COVID-19 cases in Europe and the U.S. The largest beneficiary of this development was the technology-oriented Nasdaq Composite, which was a 2020 darling because lockdowns and remote work affected the sector less than others. Small-caps fell, as smaller businesses and energy were hurt by news of new lockdowns in countries such as Austria. Lockdown-style trading returned at the sector level, with technology and consumer discretionary leading the way, paced by companies such as Apple, Tesla, Amazon, Nvidia, and Microsoft.

Weekly Market Update - November 15, 2021

Global markets (excluding emerging markets) were down slightly, in part due to inflationary pressure and the recent winning streak for markets. The S&P 500 came into the week boasting a five-week winning streak and finished last Monday up for the eighth consecutive trading day, marking the longest streak of all-time closing highs since 1997.

Weekly Market Update - November 8, 2021

Yields fell across the Treasury curve last week as the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced plans to begin tapering the pace of asset purchases this month. The central bank will cut back on Treasury buying by $10 billion per month.