Holbrook Insights

Equities rallied as the election results led to a higher likelihood of future stimulus. As the number of coronavirus cases increased nationwide, the FAAMNG technology and discretionary names, including Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Netflix, and Google, outperformed. 

Equities sold off last week as new coronavirus restrictions were implemented in France, Germany, Spain, and the U.K. U.S. small-cap stocks, which benefited from a recent reopening trade, were among the hardest hit. 

We finished the week with Friday’s release of the September retail sales report. Sales impressed, rising by 1.9 percent against calls for a more modest 0.8 percent increase. This result marks the best month of sales since June and signals that consumers were willing and able to continue spending despite expired government stimulus.

There was a pickup in yields last week in the wake of stimulus talks. The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 0.70 percent 10 days ago before spiking to 0.81 percent on Wednesday and dipping to 0.79 percent on Friday. (The 30-year Treasury yield rose 10 basis points last week.) 

On Friday, September’s employment report was released. This was a disappointing update, as 661,000 jobs were added during the month, well below economist estimates for 859,000. This is down considerably from the 1.3 million jobs added in August and marks the smallest number of additional jobs since reopening efforts began. 

On Tuesday, August’s existing home sales report was released. Sales of existing homes rose by 2.4 percent, in line with expectations. On a year-over-year basis, sales are up by more than 10 percent. This solid result brings the pace of existing home sales to its highest level since 2006, highlighting an impressive rebound for the housing market since reopening efforts began.

Last Wednesday, we saw the release of the August retail sales report. Sales disappointed during the month, rising by 0.6 percent against calls for a 1 percent increase. July’s retail sales growth was also revised down from 1.2 percent to 0.9 percent. 

Last week saw a continuation of the previous week’s sell-off, largely driven by this year’s high-flying technology and consumer discretionary names. The week began with a sharp sell-off in Tesla. The stock fell by more than 10 percent when it was not added to the S&P 500 Index.

Last week featured another rally driven by communication services and technology, as the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average each increased by more than 2.5 percent. The largest drivers within communication services included Facebook and Netflix, which increased 10 percent and 6.4 percent, respectively. 

Last week’s rally was driven by the technology, consumer discretionary, and communication services sectors, with the so-called “Awesome 8” (Amazon, Apple, Google, Facebook, Microsoft, Netflix, Nvidia, and Tesla) maintaining their leadership. The tech-oriented Nasdaq continued its outperformance since March, passing its prepandemic high last week. The positivity around the market was mainly supported by lower coronavirus case counts and continued liquidity from central banks. The sectors that lagged the most were energy, financials, and utilities.